Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Brain Teaser

Let's say there is a gold dobloon nestled deep within the innards of one of three babies (one has blond hair, one has brown hair, and one has red hair). You've already eaten a large meal and don't have room for three whole babies, so you grab the baby with red hair, hold a knife over its stomach, and prepare to gut it and use only your face to gorge on the sweet intestines inside. A doctor walks in and reveals that you were right in assuming the blond haired baby had no dobloon inside but can't (or won't) say anything else. This was not the baby under the knife, but do you have a better chance of finding the dobloon if you switch babies, keep the same baby, or are chances 50-50 of finding the dobloon in either baby?

The answer: Chances are 2/3 that slicing open, gutting, and eating the brown haired baby will reveal the dobloon. No, really. For all kinds of mathematical analysis, search for the Monty Hall problem. It's actually a huge ongoing raging debate, but computer simulations reveal you will lose 2/3 of the time if you don't switch.

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