Chris's Midterm Forecast

Based on the latest polls, sophisticated number-crunching and a lifetime of experience covering Washington, Chris's Midterm Forecasts are a must-read for any political junkie!  Unafraid to talk tough and go against the grain of conventional wisdom, Chris's take-no-prisoners forecast cuts right to the heart of what's happening on the Beltway!

ARKANSAS
Wow, tough one to forecast!  Here you've got a real "swing state showdown" between two strong candidates.  Tom Cotton and Mark Pryor, two real great guys, I'm sure.  Hey, if I told you I knew what was going to happen I'd be lying!  This one's a real coin-flip for me.
VERDICT: TOSS-UP

KENTUCKY
Another toughie!  Couple of great candidates, I love them both.  Everyone's asking, will Grimes pull off the upset?  Does she have a chance?  Seems like -- I don't know.  Probably not, I guess.  But she definitely could win -- I'm not saying she couldn't.  Don't think I'm saying anything bad about her.  This one's a coin-flip if I've ever seen one.
VERDICT: TOSS-UP

TEXASTwo real solid candidates here, I am truly in love with these candidates.  I feel like Cornyn's got the edge, but I'm not gonna close the book on Alameel just yet.  Hmm, tough call, tough call.  Hold on, I'm gonna check what FiveThirtyEight says.  All right, they've got Cornyn at a 99% chance to win.  Wow.  That seems a little high.  I'm sure this Alameel guy is a smart guy, and he's probably trying hard.  Seems like if you're TRYING to win, they should give you better than a 1% chance right off the bat, but what do I know.  I don't want to say anything bad about him just because he's losing.  Or she's losing, I don't know.  What's Alameel's first name?  "David."  Probably a man, but I knew a girl named David, so it could go either way.  I remember I had gym with her in grade school and she fell off the balance beam and slammed her teeth right into it and they completely shattered in her mouth.  Or was her name Dana?  That would make more sense I guess.  Who do I know named "David?"
VERDICT: TOSS-UP

LOUISIANA
I've never even BEEN to Louisiana.  I'm supposed to act like I know what's going to happen there when I've never even been there?  Forget it.  Flip a coin.
VERDICT: TOSS-UP

MONTANA
Montana.  Two tough competitors there, I'm sure!  I fucking love both of these fucking candidates, pardon my language.  All right, so they've got a Democratic incumbent, but he looks like he's polling really bad.  Walsh.  But he seems like a good guy, I mean I don't know anything about him, but you don't get into the Senate if you don't have something going for you.  Man, though, look how bad he's doing.  Other guy.  Aah!  I don't know.  All right, I'm going to close my eyes for five seconds and clear my mind, and then I'll open my eyes and I'll just have a FEELING who's going to win.  Five-four-three-two-one.  FUCK!  Nope, again.  Five-four-three-two-one.  Other guy.  Ok, the other guy, NOT Walsh.  Or Walsh?  Now I'm really feeling Walsh all of a sudden.  Fuck, coin-flip, coin-flip.
VERDICT: TOSS-UP

SENATE CONTROL
Hey, this one's still too close-to-call!  Lots of great candidates, could go either way -- 2014's shaping up to be a real "coin-flip" year!  I love politics!
VERDICT: TOSS-UP